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              "product": "quantum-computing",
              "score": 0.257709227200335,
              "score_label": "weak (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": false
            },
            {
              "arrival": 1956,
              "components": {
                "barriers": 0.0,
                "dependency": 0.548,
                "growth": 0.2898978114228415,
                "precedence": null,
                "stages": 0.5
              },
              "label": "first commercial atomic clock",
              "later_growth": 6.757656973072643,
              "name": "Quantum sensing",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 1437,
              "product": "quantum-sensing",
              "score": 0.4459659371409472,
              "score_label": "moderate (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": false
            },
            {
              "arrival": 2011,
              "components": {
                "barriers": 0.0,
                "dependency": 0.04827586206896552,
                "growth": 0.45502952407443237,
                "precedence": null,
                "stages": 0.5
              },
              "label": "first commercial encryption sold as resistant to quantum attacks",
              "later_growth": 26.540383321464486,
              "name": "Post-quantum cryptography",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 209,
              "product": "post-quantum-cryptography",
              "score": 0.33443512871446596,
              "score_label": "weak (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": false
            },
            {
              "arrival": null,
              "components": {
                "barriers": 0.0,
                "dependency": 0.24034334763948498,
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                "precedence": null,
                "stages": 0.25
              },
              "label": null,
              "later_growth": 1.344815924568667,
              "name": "Faster-than-light messaging",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 343,
              "product": "faster-than-light-messaging",
              "score": 0.16344778254649497,
              "score_label": "weak (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": true
            }
          ],
          "score": {
            "pairs": 0,
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          }
        },
        {
          "baseline": {
            "pairs": 1,
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          },
          "chain": "wearable-computing",
          "growth": {
            "pairs": 36,
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            "ties": 0
          },
          "name": "Wearable computing",
          "products": [
            {
              "arrival": 2013,
              "components": {
                "barriers": 0.0,
                "dependency": 0.11183355006501951,
                "growth": 0.1078871795555374,
                "precedence": null,
                "stages": 1.0
              },
              "label": "first consumer smart glasses",
              "later_growth": 2.4889566731422996,
              "name": "Smart glasses",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 4618,
              "product": "smart-glasses",
              "score": 0.40657357654018567,
              "score_label": "moderate (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": false
            },
            {
              "arrival": 2009,
              "components": {
                "barriers": 0.0,
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                "growth": 0.4435885429630076,
                "precedence": null,
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              },
              "label": "first consumer activity tracker",
              "later_growth": 5.048598159774868,
              "name": "Wrist-worn computers",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 5445,
              "product": "wrist-worn",
              "score": 0.5428581504128976,
              "score_label": "moderate (barriers unsampled)",
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            },
            {
              "arrival": 2016,
              "components": {
                "barriers": 0.0,
                "dependency": 0.05517241379310345,
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              },
              "label": "first consumer virtual reality headset",
              "later_growth": 12.896672604130723,
              "name": "VR headsets",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 256,
              "product": "vr-headsets",
              "score": 0.45875473708315107,
              "score_label": "moderate (barriers unsampled)",
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            },
            {
              "arrival": 2016,
              "components": {
                "barriers": 0.0,
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                "growth": 0.05652752431416521,
                "precedence": null,
                "stages": 0.3333333333333333
              },
              "label": "first mass-market wireless earbuds",
              "later_growth": 23.6198578751515,
              "name": "Hearables",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 5,
              "product": "hearables",
              "score": 0.12995361921583284,
              "score_label": "weak (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": false
            },
            {
              "arrival": 1989,
              "components": {
                "barriers": 0.0,
                "dependency": 0.05241935483870968,
                "growth": 0.043776471064600406,
                "precedence": null,
                "stages": 1.0
              },
              "label": "first consumer data glove",
              "later_growth": 1.5165136796439447,
              "name": "Data gloves",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 1075,
              "product": "data-gloves",
              "score": 0.3653986086344367,
              "score_label": "weak (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": false
            },
            {
              "arrival": 2006,
              "components": {
                "barriers": 0.0,
                "dependency": 0.008985879332477536,
                "growth": 0.07226366388157131,
                "precedence": null,
                "stages": 0.6666666666666666
              },
              "label": "first mass-market motion controller",
              "later_growth": 0.9630491957614823,
              "name": "Motion controllers",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 2756,
              "product": "motion-controllers",
              "score": 0.24930540329357184,
              "score_label": "weak (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": false
            },
            {
              "arrival": 2016,
              "components": {
                "barriers": 0.0,
                "dependency": 0.00697986577181208,
                "growth": 0.2834865970454944,
                "precedence": null,
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              },
              "label": "first eye tracking in a consumer headset",
              "later_growth": 1.807694824321986,
              "name": "Eye tracking",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 17136,
              "product": "eye-tracking",
              "score": 0.43015548760576877,
              "score_label": "moderate (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": false
            },
            {
              "arrival": 2018,
              "components": {
                "barriers": 0.0,
                "dependency": 0.4,
                "growth": 0.14532947478358818,
                "precedence": null,
                "stages": 1.0
              },
              "label": "first commercial haptic suit",
              "later_growth": 3.4620674421747095,
              "name": "Haptic suits",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 26,
              "product": "haptic-suits",
              "score": 0.5151098249278627,
              "score_label": "moderate (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": true
            },
            {
              "arrival": null,
              "components": {
                "barriers": 0.0,
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                "growth": 0.0851673869828854,
                "precedence": null,
                "stages": 0.5
              },
              "label": null,
              "later_growth": 3.137903823993556,
              "name": "Full-dive",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 3,
              "product": "full-dive",
              "score": 0.1950557956609618,
              "score_label": "weak (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": true
            }
          ],
          "score": {
            "pairs": 1,
            "right": 1,
            "ties": 0
          }
        }
      ],
      "pooled": {
        "baseline": {
          "pairs": 1,
          "right": 1,
          "ties": 0
        },
        "growth": {
          "pairs": 66,
          "right": 42,
          "ties": 0
        },
        "score": {
          "pairs": 1,
          "right": 1,
          "ties": 0
        },
        "shuffles_reaching": 4952,
        "without_barred": {
          "baseline": {
            "pairs": 0,
            "right": 0,
            "ties": 0
          },
          "score": {
            "pairs": 0,
            "right": 0,
            "ties": 0
          }
        }
      },
      "year": 2016
    }
  ],
  "preregistration": {
    "anchor_candidates": [
      "large language model",
      "graphene",
      "smartphone",
      "cloud computing",
      "social media",
      "deep learning",
      "CRISPR"
    ],
    "arrival_rule": "the first year a product in the category reached a buyer: delivered to someone other than its developers and funders, by sale, lease or service performed; a contract signed for something not yet delivered does not count, and neither does a demonstration. Wearable computing's years are the ones that chain declared on 2026-09-20, before any backtest existed, each the first consumer or mass-market product of its category; they are kept as declared, and each entry's note says where the strict rule finds an earlier delivery",
    "barred": [
      [
        "quantum-entanglement",
        "faster-than-light-messaging"
      ],
      [
        "wearable-computing",
        "full-dive"
      ]
    ],
    "cutoffs": [
      2010,
      2013,
      2016
    ],
    "decimals": 2,
    "first_year": 2000,
    "headline": 2010,
    "last_year": 2025,
    "mature": "smoke detector",
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "chain": "space-debris",
        "label": null,
        "note": "demonstrations and an inspection only through 2025 (2018, 2021, 2024); the first procured removal has slipped to 2026 or later",
        "product": "active-debris-removal",
        "source": null,
        "status": "not arrived",
        "year": null
      },
      {
        "chain": "space-debris",
        "label": "first flown micrometeoroid shield",
        "note": "a contractor-built lunar module, its outer skin a micrometeoroid shield over the thermal blanket, delivered to the space agency in June 1967 and flown uncrewed in January 1968",
        "product": "debris-shielding",
        "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_5",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 1968
      },
      {
        "chain": "space-debris",
        "label": "first paid repair of a satellite in orbit",
        "note": "a leased communications satellite captured, repaired and redeployed by a crewed shuttle in August and September 1985, its owner paying the space agency a fee; an agency repairing its own satellite (1984) or telescope (1993) had no buyer, and a 1984 retrieval of two satellites for their insurers repaired nothing in orbit",
        "product": "on-orbit-servicing",
        "source": "https://www.csmonitor.com/1985/0903/afly-f.html",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 1985
      },
      {
        "chain": "space-debris",
        "label": "first commercially built small satellite delivered",
        "note": "a microsatellite built by a commercial manufacturer and delivered under contract to a research institute, launched in August 1992",
        "product": "small-satellites",
        "source": "https://www.sstl.co.uk/space-portfolio/launched-missions/1990-1999/kitsat-1-launched-1992",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 1992
      },
      {
        "chain": "humanoid-robots",
        "label": "first consumer social robot",
        "note": "a companion robot sold to consumers from June 1999",
        "product": "social-robots",
        "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIBO",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 1999
      },
      {
        "chain": "humanoid-robots",
        "label": "first robot leased for elder care",
        "note": "a therapeutic robot leased to elder-care facilities from September 2004; retail sale followed in 2005",
        "product": "care-robots",
        "source": "https://www.aist.go.jp/aist_e/list/latest_research/2004/20041208_2/20041208_2.html",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2004
      },
      {
        "chain": "humanoid-robots",
        "label": "first commercially made remote manipulators delivered",
        "note": "hand-operated remote manipulators for handling radioactive material, made by a commercial manufacturer and delivered to laboratories and companies from 1951 to 1954, per a quoted company history; the first year of that period is taken, no source names the first delivery, low confidence",
        "product": "teleoperated-robots",
        "source": "https://cyberneticzoo.com/man-amplifiers/1956-ge-yes-man-teleoperator-american/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 1951
      },
      {
        "chain": "quantum-entanglement",
        "label": "first commercial quantum key distribution installation",
        "note": "the first documented installation for a customer, October 2007; no source states whether it was bought, leased or lent; availability announcements in 2003 and 2004 had no confirmed delivery",
        "product": "quantum-key-distribution",
        "source": "https://www.idquantique.com/idq-celebrates-10-year-anniversary-of-the-worlds-first-real-life-quantum-cryptography-installation/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2007
      },
      {
        "chain": "quantum-entanglement",
        "label": null,
        "note": "a network sharing quantum states between nodes was announced as commercially available in November 2022 and took its first named customer in December 2023 for collaborative validation runs, with no terms stated; read as a demonstration; networks relaying keys through trusted nodes are read as key distribution",
        "product": "quantum-networks",
        "source": null,
        "status": "not arrived",
        "year": null
      },
      {
        "chain": "quantum-entanglement",
        "label": null,
        "note": "demonstrations and operator trials only through 2025",
        "product": "quantum-teleportation",
        "source": null,
        "status": "not arrived",
        "year": null
      },
      {
        "chain": "quantum-entanglement",
        "label": "first commercial quantum computer delivered",
        "note": "sold, and installed at the buyer's research site, in 2011",
        "product": "quantum-computing",
        "source": "https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/first-commercial-quantum-computer-sold/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2011
      },
      {
        "chain": "quantum-entanglement",
        "label": "first commercial atomic clock",
        "note": "the category read by operating principle, quantum metrology among its terms; the reading limited to devices sold under the modern quantum-sensor label, about 2016, was set aside",
        "product": "quantum-sensing",
        "source": "https://www.nist.gov/atomic-clocks/how-atomic-clocks-work/beams-atoms-first-atomic-clocks",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 1956
      },
      {
        "chain": "quantum-entanglement",
        "label": "first commercial encryption sold as resistant to quantum attacks",
        "note": "lattice cipher suites in a commercial library, used with a purchased licence and offered as resistant to quantum attacks, March 2011; a licence to an investor by 2003 without that claim, and a 2019 cloud service, were set aside",
        "product": "post-quantum-cryptography",
        "source": "https://www.wolfssl.com/ntru-resistant-to-quantum-attacks/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2011
      },
      {
        "chain": "quantum-entanglement",
        "label": null,
        "note": "the no-communication theorem forbids signalling through entanglement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No-communication_theorem",
        "product": "faster-than-light-messaging",
        "source": null,
        "status": "not arrived",
        "year": null
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": "first consumer smart glasses",
        "note": "the declared milestone; a see-through head-mounted display sold at retail in 2012 is an earlier delivery under the strict rule",
        "product": "smart-glasses",
        "source": "https://www.slashgear.com/google-glass-explorer-edition-starts-shipping-today-15277920/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2013
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": "first consumer activity tracker",
        "note": "the declared milestone, the first of two declared arrivals; an arm-worn sensor sold from 2001 mainly to clinical buyers is a possible earlier delivery",
        "product": "wrist-worn",
        "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2009/09/24/it-took-a-year-but-fitness-gadget-fitbit-finally-launches/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2009
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": "first consumer virtual reality headset",
        "note": "the declared milestone; a head-tracked consumer headset sold at retail in 1995 or 1996 is an earlier delivery under the strict rule",
        "product": "vr-headsets",
        "source": "https://www.xda-developers.com/on-this-day-oculus-rift-cv1/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2016
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": "first mass-market wireless earbuds",
        "note": "the declared milestone; truly wireless earbuds reached crowdfunding backers from October 2015",
        "product": "hearables",
        "source": "https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2016/12/apple-airpods-are-now-available/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2016
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": "first consumer data glove",
        "note": "the declared milestone, consistent with the strict rule; a 1987 research glove went to laboratories",
        "product": "data-gloves",
        "source": "https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/91939/losing-their-grip-oral-history-nintendos-power-glove",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 1989
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": "first mass-market motion controller",
        "note": "the declared milestone; light guns, in the category's own terms, were sold with home consoles from 1984",
        "product": "motion-controllers",
        "source": "https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna15802977",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2006
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": "first eye tracking in a consumer headset",
        "note": "the declared milestone; the first such headset was sold in November 2016 and delivered from January 2017",
        "product": "eye-tracking",
        "source": "https://www.uploadvr.com/fove-0-price-pre-orders/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2016
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": "first commercial haptic suit",
        "note": "the declared milestone; no delivery was found in 2018, units reaching buyers in 2019, and a haptic vest was sold at retail in 1994",
        "product": "haptic-suits",
        "source": "https://www.roadtovr.com/haptic-vest-ryg-launches-kickstarter-fully-funded-3-hours/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2018
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": null,
        "note": "nothing that enters through the skin to carry a world was delivered by 2025",
        "product": "full-dive",
        "source": null,
        "status": "not arrived",
        "year": null
      }
    ],
    "revises": {
      "changes": [
        {
          "chain": "space-debris",
          "product": "debris-shielding",
          "why": "The 1973 station shield was not the first flown; a lunar module carrying a micrometeoroid shield flew in 1968. Found after the first run."
        },
        {
          "chain": "space-debris",
          "product": "on-orbit-servicing",
          "why": "A satellite's owner paid for a repair in orbit in 1985, before the first commercial life-extension service of 2020."
        },
        {
          "chain": "humanoid-robots",
          "product": "teleoperated-robots",
          "why": "The 1972 bomb-disposal vehicle was a government in-house design, not a delivery to a buyer; commercially made remote manipulators reached outside buyers from 1951, on a second-hand source."
        },
        {
          "chain": "quantum-entanglement",
          "product": "quantum-key-distribution",
          "why": "No earlier delivery was documented; the note no longer calls the 2007 installation paid, since no source says so."
        },
        {
          "chain": "quantum-entanglement",
          "product": "quantum-networks",
          "why": "2022 was the network's announcement, and its first customer, in December 2023, ran collaborative validation runs with no terms stated, which the rule reads as a demonstration."
        }
      ],
      "commit": "094380f3e745833bed5d403684219a8c750375e3",
      "result_sha256": "c12150b67873f653955814d7fe22646fccdd5f12f0647941b098195ed7657a14",
      "ruled": "2026-09-30",
      "sha256": "645456e20d913b9c74d4be3880ca9b9617801707303fbc2aeb85d8bbf6ef9f06"
    },
    "seed": 20260921,
    "shuffle_bar": 500,
    "shuffles": 10000
  },
  "provenance": {
    "commit": "3c855e167575fd40e8f3bae2e9c4b09501837e39",
    "committed": "2026-09-30T15:32:08-05:00",
    "python": "3.14.3",
    "sha256": "9dc963e8c05b632b60971e4ea42c18e3ceef050198b92ab60582895a305dff2d"
  },
  "verdict": {
    "words": "did not rank arrivals",
    "year": 2010
  }
}