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              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 14644,
              "product": "quantum-computing",
              "score": 0.257709227200335,
              "score_label": "weak (barriers unsampled)",
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            },
            {
              "arrival": 1956,
              "components": {
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                "stages": 0.5
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              "label": "first commercial atomic clock",
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              "name": "Quantum sensing",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 1437,
              "product": "quantum-sensing",
              "score": 0.4459659371409472,
              "score_label": "moderate (barriers unsampled)",
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            },
            {
              "arrival": 2011,
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              "label": "first commercial encryption sold as resistant to quantum attacks",
              "later_growth": 26.540383321464486,
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              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 209,
              "product": "post-quantum-cryptography",
              "score": 0.33443512871446596,
              "score_label": "weak (barriers unsampled)",
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            },
            {
              "arrival": null,
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                "stages": 0.25
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              "label": null,
              "later_growth": 1.344815924568667,
              "name": "Faster-than-light messaging",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 343,
              "product": "faster-than-light-messaging",
              "score": 0.16344778254649497,
              "score_label": "weak (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": true
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          ],
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        },
        {
          "baseline": {
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          "chain": "wearable-computing",
          "growth": {
            "pairs": 36,
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          "name": "Wearable computing",
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            {
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              "label": "first consumer smart glasses",
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            },
            {
              "arrival": 2009,
              "components": {
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                "growth": 0.4435885429630076,
                "precedence": null,
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              "label": "first consumer activity tracker",
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              "papers": 5445,
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              "score": 0.5428581504128976,
              "score_label": "moderate (barriers unsampled)",
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            },
            {
              "arrival": 2016,
              "components": {
                "barriers": 0.0,
                "dependency": 0.05517241379310345,
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              },
              "label": "first consumer virtual reality headset",
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              "papers": 256,
              "product": "vr-headsets",
              "score": 0.45875473708315107,
              "score_label": "moderate (barriers unsampled)",
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            },
            {
              "arrival": 2016,
              "components": {
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                "precedence": null,
                "stages": 0.3333333333333333
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              "label": "first mass-market wireless earbuds",
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              "name": "Hearables",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 5,
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              "score": 0.12995361921583284,
              "score_label": "weak (barriers unsampled)",
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            },
            {
              "arrival": 1989,
              "components": {
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                "precedence": null,
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              },
              "label": "first consumer data glove",
              "later_growth": 1.5165136796439447,
              "name": "Data gloves",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 1075,
              "product": "data-gloves",
              "score": 0.3653986086344367,
              "score_label": "weak (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": false
            },
            {
              "arrival": 2006,
              "components": {
                "barriers": 0.0,
                "dependency": 0.008985879332477536,
                "growth": 0.07226366388157131,
                "precedence": null,
                "stages": 0.6666666666666666
              },
              "label": "first mass-market motion controller",
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              "name": "Motion controllers",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 2756,
              "product": "motion-controllers",
              "score": 0.24930540329357184,
              "score_label": "weak (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": false
            },
            {
              "arrival": 2016,
              "components": {
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                "growth": 0.2834865970454944,
                "precedence": null,
                "stages": 1.0
              },
              "label": "first eye tracking in a consumer headset",
              "later_growth": 1.807694824321986,
              "name": "Eye tracking",
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              "papers": 17136,
              "product": "eye-tracking",
              "score": 0.43015548760576877,
              "score_label": "moderate (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": false
            },
            {
              "arrival": 2018,
              "components": {
                "barriers": 0.0,
                "dependency": 0.4,
                "growth": 0.14532947478358818,
                "precedence": null,
                "stages": 1.0
              },
              "label": "first commercial haptic suit",
              "later_growth": 3.4620674421747095,
              "name": "Haptic suits",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 26,
              "product": "haptic-suits",
              "score": 0.5151098249278627,
              "score_label": "moderate (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": true
            },
            {
              "arrival": null,
              "components": {
                "barriers": 0.0,
                "dependency": 0.0,
                "growth": 0.0851673869828854,
                "precedence": null,
                "stages": 0.5
              },
              "label": null,
              "later_growth": 3.137903823993556,
              "name": "Full-dive",
              "no_references": false,
              "papers": 3,
              "product": "full-dive",
              "score": 0.1950557956609618,
              "score_label": "weak (barriers unsampled)",
              "tested": true
            }
          ],
          "score": {
            "pairs": 1,
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            "ties": 0
          }
        }
      ],
      "pooled": {
        "baseline": {
          "pairs": 4,
          "right": 3,
          "ties": 0
        },
        "growth": {
          "pairs": 66,
          "right": 42,
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        },
        "score": {
          "pairs": 4,
          "right": 3,
          "ties": 0
        },
        "shuffles_reaching": 3336,
        "without_barred": {
          "baseline": {
            "pairs": 2,
            "right": 1,
            "ties": 0
          },
          "score": {
            "pairs": 2,
            "right": 1,
            "ties": 0
          }
        }
      },
      "year": 2016
    }
  ],
  "preregistration": {
    "anchor_candidates": [
      "large language model",
      "graphene",
      "smartphone",
      "cloud computing",
      "social media",
      "deep learning",
      "CRISPR"
    ],
    "arrival_rule": "the first year a product in the category reached a buyer: delivered to someone other than its developers and funders, by sale, lease or service performed; a contract signed for something not yet delivered does not count, and neither does a demonstration. Wearable computing's years are the ones that chain declared on 2026-09-20, before any backtest existed, each the first consumer or mass-market product of its category; they are kept as declared, and each entry's note says where the strict rule finds an earlier delivery",
    "barred": [
      [
        "quantum-entanglement",
        "faster-than-light-messaging"
      ],
      [
        "wearable-computing",
        "full-dive"
      ]
    ],
    "cutoffs": [
      2010,
      2013,
      2016
    ],
    "decimals": 2,
    "first_year": 2000,
    "headline": 2010,
    "last_year": 2025,
    "mature": "smoke detector",
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "chain": "space-debris",
        "label": null,
        "note": "demonstrations and an inspection only through 2025 (2018, 2021, 2024); the first procured removal has slipped to 2026 or later",
        "product": "active-debris-removal",
        "source": null,
        "status": "not arrived",
        "year": null
      },
      {
        "chain": "space-debris",
        "label": "first flown micrometeoroid shield",
        "note": "a contractor-built spaced-wall shield delivered to the space agency and launched in May 1973; earlier protection on crewed capsules is less cleanly documented",
        "product": "debris-shielding",
        "source": "https://www.nasa.gov/history/skylab-americas-first-space-station/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 1973
      },
      {
        "chain": "space-debris",
        "label": "first commercial satellite life-extension service",
        "note": "the first servicing performed for a paying client, February 2020; an owner servicing its own telescope was ruled out",
        "product": "on-orbit-servicing",
        "source": "https://spacenews.com/northrop-grummans-mev-1-servicer-docks-with-intelsat-satellite/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2020
      },
      {
        "chain": "space-debris",
        "label": "first commercially built small satellite delivered",
        "note": "a microsatellite built by a commercial manufacturer and delivered under contract to a research institute, launched in August 1992",
        "product": "small-satellites",
        "source": "https://www.sstl.co.uk/space-portfolio/launched-missions/1990-1999/kitsat-1-launched-1992",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 1992
      },
      {
        "chain": "humanoid-robots",
        "label": "first consumer social robot",
        "note": "a companion robot sold to consumers from June 1999",
        "product": "social-robots",
        "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIBO",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 1999
      },
      {
        "chain": "humanoid-robots",
        "label": "first robot leased for elder care",
        "note": "a therapeutic robot leased to elder-care facilities from September 2004; retail sale followed in 2005",
        "product": "care-robots",
        "source": "https://www.aist.go.jp/aist_e/list/latest_research/2004/20041208_2/20041208_2.html",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2004
      },
      {
        "chain": "humanoid-robots",
        "label": "first teleoperated bomb-disposal robot delivered",
        "note": "a bomb-disposal robot built by a contractor and delivered to an army, in service by 1972; earlier nuclear manipulators are too thinly dated",
        "product": "teleoperated-robots",
        "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheelbarrow_(robot)",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 1972
      },
      {
        "chain": "quantum-entanglement",
        "label": "first commercial quantum key distribution installation",
        "note": "the first documented paid installation, October 2007; availability announcements in 2003 and 2004 had no confirmed delivery",
        "product": "quantum-key-distribution",
        "source": "https://www.idquantique.com/idq-celebrates-10-year-anniversary-of-the-worlds-first-real-life-quantum-cryptography-installation/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2007
      },
      {
        "chain": "quantum-entanglement",
        "label": "first commercial quantum network service",
        "note": "the first paid service sharing quantum states between nodes, November 2022; networks relaying classical keys through trusted nodes are read as key distribution",
        "product": "quantum-networks",
        "source": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/epb-and-qubitekk-launch-commercial-quantum-network-to-accelerate-development-and-adoption-of-quantum-products-301690778.html",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2022
      },
      {
        "chain": "quantum-entanglement",
        "label": null,
        "note": "demonstrations and operator trials only through 2025",
        "product": "quantum-teleportation",
        "source": null,
        "status": "not arrived",
        "year": null
      },
      {
        "chain": "quantum-entanglement",
        "label": "first commercial quantum computer delivered",
        "note": "sold, and installed at the buyer's research site, in 2011",
        "product": "quantum-computing",
        "source": "https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/first-commercial-quantum-computer-sold/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2011
      },
      {
        "chain": "quantum-entanglement",
        "label": "first commercial atomic clock",
        "note": "the category read by operating principle, quantum metrology among its terms; the reading limited to devices sold under the modern quantum-sensor label, about 2016, was set aside",
        "product": "quantum-sensing",
        "source": "https://www.nist.gov/atomic-clocks/how-atomic-clocks-work/beams-atoms-first-atomic-clocks",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 1956
      },
      {
        "chain": "quantum-entanglement",
        "label": "first commercial encryption sold as resistant to quantum attacks",
        "note": "lattice cipher suites in a commercial library, used with a purchased licence and offered as resistant to quantum attacks, March 2011; a licence to an investor by 2003 without that claim, and a 2019 cloud service, were set aside",
        "product": "post-quantum-cryptography",
        "source": "https://www.wolfssl.com/ntru-resistant-to-quantum-attacks/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2011
      },
      {
        "chain": "quantum-entanglement",
        "label": null,
        "note": "the no-communication theorem forbids signalling through entanglement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No-communication_theorem",
        "product": "faster-than-light-messaging",
        "source": null,
        "status": "not arrived",
        "year": null
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": "first consumer smart glasses",
        "note": "the declared milestone; a see-through head-mounted display sold at retail in 2012 is an earlier delivery under the strict rule",
        "product": "smart-glasses",
        "source": "https://www.slashgear.com/google-glass-explorer-edition-starts-shipping-today-15277920/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2013
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": "first consumer activity tracker",
        "note": "the declared milestone, the first of two declared arrivals; an arm-worn sensor sold from 2001 mainly to clinical buyers is a possible earlier delivery",
        "product": "wrist-worn",
        "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2009/09/24/it-took-a-year-but-fitness-gadget-fitbit-finally-launches/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2009
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": "first consumer virtual reality headset",
        "note": "the declared milestone; a head-tracked consumer headset sold at retail in 1995 or 1996 is an earlier delivery under the strict rule",
        "product": "vr-headsets",
        "source": "https://www.xda-developers.com/on-this-day-oculus-rift-cv1/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2016
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": "first mass-market wireless earbuds",
        "note": "the declared milestone; truly wireless earbuds reached crowdfunding backers from October 2015",
        "product": "hearables",
        "source": "https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2016/12/apple-airpods-are-now-available/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2016
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": "first consumer data glove",
        "note": "the declared milestone, consistent with the strict rule; a 1987 research glove went to laboratories",
        "product": "data-gloves",
        "source": "https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/91939/losing-their-grip-oral-history-nintendos-power-glove",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 1989
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": "first mass-market motion controller",
        "note": "the declared milestone; light guns, in the category's own terms, were sold with home consoles from 1984",
        "product": "motion-controllers",
        "source": "https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna15802977",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2006
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": "first eye tracking in a consumer headset",
        "note": "the declared milestone; the first such headset was sold in November 2016 and delivered from January 2017",
        "product": "eye-tracking",
        "source": "https://www.uploadvr.com/fove-0-price-pre-orders/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2016
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": "first commercial haptic suit",
        "note": "the declared milestone; no delivery was found in 2018, units reaching buyers in 2019, and a haptic vest was sold at retail in 1994",
        "product": "haptic-suits",
        "source": "https://www.roadtovr.com/haptic-vest-ryg-launches-kickstarter-fully-funded-3-hours/",
        "status": "arrived",
        "year": 2018
      },
      {
        "chain": "wearable-computing",
        "label": null,
        "note": "nothing that enters through the skin to carry a world was delivered by 2025",
        "product": "full-dive",
        "source": null,
        "status": "not arrived",
        "year": null
      }
    ],
    "seed": 20260921,
    "shuffle_bar": 500,
    "shuffles": 10000
  },
  "provenance": {
    "commit": "094380f3e745833bed5d403684219a8c750375e3",
    "committed": "2026-09-22T02:34:57-05:00",
    "python": "3.14.3",
    "sha256": "645456e20d913b9c74d4be3880ca9b9617801707303fbc2aeb85d8bbf6ef9f06"
  },
  "verdict": {
    "words": "did not rank arrivals",
    "year": 2010
  }
}